Design decisions under uncertainty with limited information by Efstratios Nikolaidis

By Efstratios Nikolaidis

"Reliability tools have gotten more and more well known in engineering layout simply because they assist construct more secure and extra effective items than conventional deterministic tools. A valuable problem in utilizing those equipment in sensible layout difficulties is to version uncertainty whilst little facts is out there and the underlying mechanism of doubtful occasions is unknown. there's a desire for an built-in presentation of tools Read more...


Reliability equipment have gotten more and more renowned in engineering layout simply because they assist construct more secure and extra effective items than conventional deterministic tools. This paintings offers and Read more...

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In this step, uncertainty is quantified using simple models such as design allowable values and safety factors. Designers identify important uncertainties by performing sensitivity analysis. For this purpose, they vary the uncertain variables in intervals, one at a time, and find the resulting intervals of the performance characteristics of the design. Tools, such as tornado diagrams, help designers identify the most important uncertainties (Howard, 1988). The second step is to model all the important sources of uncertainty.

Weakness The theory has limited applicability. while keeping all relevant conditions identical, in order to observe how frequently the outcome occurs. Flipping a coin and rolling a die are repeatable experiments. Objective probability is a property of the system observed, not of a particular decision maker. In principle, a decision maker can check an estimate of the objective probability by repeating the experiment many times until the relative frequency converges. Most people think of probability as long-term relative frequency.

4 shows a procedure for eliciting an expert’s subjective probability of some outcome. The expert is risk neutral. This means that the worth of a risky venture to the expert is equal to the mean value of the monetary return. g. a few cents) to the ticket. The expert should prefer the ticket to the sure amount (which means he/she would buy the ticket for this amount) because its price is trivial. The facilitator increases the amount incrementally and repeats the question. If the amount increases in small increments then it will reach a limit $p for which the expert will become indifferent between the ticket and the sure amount.

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