By Vos & Ganuza
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Additional info for Who Gains From Free Trade: Export-Led Growth, Inequality and Poverty in Latin America (Routledge Studies in Development Economics)
Sample text
Latin America clearly remains a very volatile region as compared to most other parts of the world (IDB 1995; Rodrik 1999; De Ferranti et al. 2000). The above description of patterns confirms such volatility. However, in terms of growth performance it is not true that volatility has increased during the 1990s. 1 shows, volatility (defined as the standard deviation of the per capita income growth rate) in the 1990s was somewhat lower than during the 1980s, though generally higher than during the period of high growth of the 1960s and 1970s.
These five phrases might be expected to have determinate signs, derived from the respective demand and supply elasticities. The first phrase (the interaction between the domestic demand level and the cost of the imports generated by a unit increase in that demand) might be expected to have a negative sign through the income effect, unless demand adjustment is in fact ‘forced’ by external variables. The second phrase (interaction between import displacement and relative import prices) is presumably negative if the real exchange rate stimulates more efficient use of imported inputs and changes consumption patterns.
The country studies use a periodization that fits the economic history of the country. In the analysis below, we show 5-year period averages for external shocks and domestic adjustment. This allows us to focus on patterns of adjustment in the medium run rather than on annual fluctuations. The limitation of this approach is, of course, that the observed shifts may obscure substantial within-period volatility. 5. 4 we report changes in the current account deficit, meaning that a positive sign refers to an increase in the deficit and an adverse external shock.