By Brendan Brown (auth.)
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Additional info for What Drives Global Capital Flows?: Myth, Speculation and Currency Diplomacy
Sample text
In itself, goods smuggling sometimes gives rise to offsetting errors in the two countries which are party to the particular trade. In the country exporting narcotics, there might be a positive contribution to errors and omissions (from the given export), whilst in the importing country there might be a negative contribution. The word “might” is used because in many cases narcotics exports will have a direct counterpart in the form of hidden capital outflow; and the import of 46 What Drives Global Capital Flows?
And the present deficit is out of line with previous US experience, even exceeding as a percentage of GDP the levels recorded in the late nineteenth century when the US was a rapidly developing economy. It remains to be seen what weight should be given to a fairly short period of historical evidence, most of which has been under very different institutional setting. 2, we can easily see how far out of line with “normal experience” is the present structure of net capital flows – even though there has been some considerable variability over time.
Savings rates are very high, reflecting a combination of population ageing and lack of confidence in pension provision. And a high level of political risk in most cases goes along with a considerable appetite for foreign assets (partly by way of unregistered capital flight). To complete the snapshot of present global net capital flows we need consider the situation of Eastern Europe, Australasia and Latin America. The so-called transition economies (in Eastern Europe) are in surplus by around $20bn, but that is a combination of a large surplus for Russia (around $80bn – reflecting a jump in oil revenues associated with the 2003–5 oil price shock) and large deficits (relative to economic size) for the other East European economies most of which are already in the EU or embarked on an entry program.