By Morten Balling, Frank Lierman, Andy Mullineux
Discusses survey lectures from plenary classes.
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Extra info for Technology and Finance: Challenges for Financial Markets, Business Strategies and Policy Makers
Example text
No doubt, though, I would myself find it somewhat more reassuring if central bankers were paid by results, and paid handsomely when their targets were achieved. The inter-temporal nature of risk 3 4 5 6 39 In fact, I have been led to understand, the main reason why such an incentive scheme was not introduced in New Zealand was presentational; that is the NZ Treasury were concerned about possible headlines, after an interest rate increase, along the lines of ‘Governor makes himself $20,000 by throwing 20,000 out of work’.
Deflated by the CPI. 5). 4 Average growth of UK real share prices (1854–2000). 5 Average growth of US real share prices (1871–2000). 1981–2000 The inter-temporal nature of risk 23 From that, it appears that the equity premium puzzle, the excess return to holding shares, is primarily a post-war phenomenon, a feature of the last two or three decades, and could, perhaps, now disappear as fast as it arose. Even when the trends may be assumed, or taken, to be constant, so that fluctuations around them are stationary, with reversion to the mean in deviations around that trend, there is no good way to predict when the reversal will take place.
Unfortunately, since the number of recessions in the data is very small,5 there are insufficient data to test whether recessions are memoryless. However to get around this problem we can test whether downturns, defined as one (as opposed to two) or more quarters of negative GDP growth, are memoryless. Although the number of single quarter downturns are much more numerous, they are still not as frequent as we would ideally like when examining each country individually. e. not being able to reject the null hypothesis when it is in fact false.